Wireless communications, including such fields
as mobile entertainment, RFID, mobile banking and cellphone service, continues
to be one of the hottest of the world's industrial sectors.
There were approximately 8.4 billion global
wireless communications subscriptions by mid- 2019, according to Plunkett
Research estimates, GSMA Intelligence estimates that the number of global subscriptions
will grow to 8.9 billion by 2020.
(Since
some people have more than one subscription, the number of individual
subscribers is significantly lower.)
According to IDC, 1.4 billion new smartphones
were sold worldwide during 2018—making the smartphone the fastest-selling single
item of consumer electronics by far.
These handsets are purchased by new users (those who are getting mobile
service for the first time ever), but more often by those who are upgrading to
newer, more powerful phones.
At a very
rapid pace, people around the world have upgraded to smartphones.
Most new smartphones feature a dizzying array
of advanced features.
In addition,
smartphones and tablets are internet-capable, typically able to take full
advantage of high speed access on 4G networks.
This means that small, lightweight smartphones and tablets can do much
of the work of a standard desktop PC.
Consumers
love the flexibility and capability of smartphones, and by some estimates spend
an average of three hours per day using them in the U.S.
When considering this development, it is
important not to overlook the way that
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Wireless communications, including such fields
as mobile entertainment, RFID, mobile banking and cellphone service, continues
to be one of the hottest of the world’s industrial sectors. There were approximately 8.4 billion global
wireless communications subscriptions by mid- 2019, according to Plunkett
Research estimates, GSMA Intelligence estimates that the number of global subscriptions
will grow to 8.9 billion by 2020. (Since
some people have more than one subscription, the number of individual
subscribers is significantly lower.)
According to IDC, 1.4 billion new smartphones
were sold worldwide during 2018—making the smartphone the fastest-selling single
item of consumer electronics by far.
These handsets are purchased by new users (those who are getting mobile
service for the first time ever), but more often by those who are upgrading to
newer, more powerful phones. At a very
rapid pace, people around the world have upgraded to smartphones.
Most new smartphones feature a dizzying array
of advanced features. In addition,
smartphones and tablets are internet-capable, typically able to take full
advantage of high speed access on 4G networks.
This means that small, lightweight smartphones and tablets can do much
of the work of a standard desktop PC. Consumers
love the flexibility and capability of smartphones, and by some estimates spend
an average of three hours per day using them in the U.S. When considering this development, it is
important not to overlook the way that smartphones have disrupted traditional business
sectors. For example, thanks to the
powerful cameras built into smartphones, the number of photos taken by
consumers has soared at an astonishing rate, while sales of traditional cameras
have plummeted.
Plunkett Research estimated that there were
424.1 million total wireless connections in the U.S. by 2019. Total U.S. wireless service company revenues
were about $120 billion during 2018, according to Plunkett Research estimates. Market penetration of wireless service
subscriptions in the U.S. represented 120.7% of the population at year-end 2017
(up from only 120.6% the previous year and 79% at the end of 2006), according
to the CTIA (Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association). American subscribers spend an average of $80
monthly on their mobile account bills.
(In 1998, the average monthly bill was $98.02, but intense competition
forced prices to plummet.) By 2019, 83%
of U.S. cellphone users were on smartphones, according to Plunkett Research
estimates, compared to only 61% in early 2013.
Consolidation of wireless service providers has
been strong worldwide. In July 2013, for
example, Japan’s Softbank merged with America’s Sprint Nextel, creating a
powerful new force in the American market, and giving this successful Japanese
firm a solid foothold in the U.S. More
recently, Sprint and competitor T-Mobile were planning a 2019 merger. The combined businesses intend to invest
approximately $40 billion in infrastructure by 2022, developing what they
expect to be one of the first nationwide 5G networks. As of July 2019, the companies were having
difficulty settling the final details, which may delay the merger.
Of great importance is the interest in mergers
between wireless carriers and other types of communications firms. A $49 billion merger between AT&T (a
leader in both wired and wireless telephony) and DirecTV (a big name in
satellite TV services) was completed in July 2015. The strategy for such mergers is to add to
the customer base while creating the ability to offer bundled subscription
plans with multiple features and services.
(More recently, AT&T acquired Time Warner, giving it control over
vast amounts of film and television content, including content that can be
displayed on mobile devices.)
Worldwide, cellphone use continues to
experience extremely rapid growth in emerging and developing markets. China has over 1.5 billion wireless
subscriptions, with India at about 1.2 billion.
In developing nations, mobile phone service is bargain-priced. Handsets are particularly inexpensive in some
regions.
Globally, smartphone-based electronic games
(“gaming”) and mobile entertainment such as music and video continue to enjoy
soaring growth, along with the increasing use of social media on mobile
devices. Smartphones are rapidly
becoming everyday banking and payment devices, particularly in Japan, Korea and
parts of Europe; that trend will grow in the U.S. over the mid-term. (In some cases, payments are made using a
technology known as near field communication (NFC) to enable smartphones as
payment devices when close by a cash register or vending machine.) Mobile banking is one of the most popular
services for cellphone owners in the emerging world, as wireless innovation is
bringing banking services to remote areas for the first time ever, while
banking apps are extremely popular in developed nations.
The wireless sector incorporates a great deal
more than cellphone services, ranging from satellite-based communications to
vast wireless Wi-Fi networks in corporate and public spaces. There is no end in sight to the rapid
acceleration of wireless. RFID (radio
frequency ID tags used to track inventory) equipment prices are plummeting
while adoption is growing on a global basis.
Practical uses for smartphones are growing endlessly. Applications for remote wireless sensors of
all types (often referred to as the Internet of Things or IoT) are about to
soar as technologies improve and costs decline.
The most important wireless industry sectors for future growth and advancing
technologies include self-driving vehicles, management of “Smart Cities,”
sports, entertainment, energy management and monitoring, advertising and health
care.
The
Future of the Wireless Industry
1)
The
total wireless market and the number of uses for wireless connections will
continue to grow, even though market penetration of individual mobile phone
subscribers has reached extremely high levels on a global basis. M2M, or machine-to-machine communications,
will be a major growth factor in the wireless industry. Wireless Sensor Networks (the Internet of Things
or IoT) will proliferate, providing exciting new ways to gather environmental
and industrial data, and to foster home automation and monitoring along with
industrial uses.
2)
Smartphones
will continue to morph into ever more complex, multi-purpose personal
communication devices thanks to the availability of apps of all types. Smartphone circuitry will become much more
powerful, piggybacking off the revolution in ultra-fast, multi-processor power
in handheld game machines.
3)
5G,
the next generation of high-speed wireless, will quickly move onto the market, thanks
to global agreement to 5G standards and rapid introduction of advanced
equipment. Faster 5G speeds will lead to
the introduction of advanced levels of mobile services and entertainment.
4)
Security
issues, such as eavesdropping on Bluetooth conversations, hacking into Wi-Fi
networks and viruses spread among smartphones, will require more and more
attention and investment from the technology and telecommunications sectors.
5)
RFID
will continue rapid adoption by manufacturers, logistics centers, shippers and
retailers. Latest-generation RFID will
eliminate most of the disappointments of earlier RFID implementations.
6)
The
wireless industry is relatively immune to dips in the economy, as consumers
consider their mobile communications to be as basic a need as clothing or
transportation.
7)
The
Personal Health Internet is becoming widespread, with consumers constantly
using health apps and small devices, monitoring their own vital signs and
uploading related data to online sites for analysis.
8)
The
support that cloud computing provides to the wireless sector will continue to
grow in importance, while costs and capabilities become ever more attractive. Cloud computing makes it possible for a vast
variety of mobile apps to operate efficiently, while enabling the storage and
analysis of massive amounts of data that can be accessed via mobile devices.
9)
The
advent of self-driving cars and trucks will create intense levels of wireless
demand. These vehicles will create immense
amounts of data that will be managed wirelessly. Autonomous vehicles will communicate with
each other over wireless networks, and will also receive continuing updates
regarding road and traffic conditions from services known as Intelligent
Transportation Systems.
10)
Growing
investment in research into “Smart Cities” will also build demand for wireless
connections over the long-term. Urban
planners envision vast, powerful networks of remote wireless sensors that will
enable cities to operate on a much more effective and energy-efficient basis,
in such areas as road traffic monitoring and management, street lighting, air
quality, public safety, emergency services and trash removal. The wireless Internet of Things (IoT) will be
the backbone of such systems.