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Real Estate & Construction OVERVIEW

The real estate and construction sectors, including the many professions and fields associated with them, are among the larger components of the global economy. As of early 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor estimated that 7.0 million Americans were employed in the construction industry (down from 7.3 million at the beginning of 2019, and down significantly from a peak of 7.6 million in 2007). The agency also estimated that 1.7 million Americans were employed in the real estate industry as of early 2021 (essentially unchanged from 2020).

Unfortunately, the Coronavirus pandemic of 2020 created many challenges in the real estate sector. Problems include homeowners who are unable to pay their mortgages, construction projects that were temporarily halted to slow the spread of disease and the closure of a large number of commercial businesses, many of which may never reopen, therefore creating empty office and shopping center space. The actual long-term results remain to be seen.

There was $16.8 trillion in outstanding mortgage debt of all types in America at year-end 2020, up from $16.0 trillion one year earlier, including homes and commercial projects. This total included $11.6 trillion in home mortgages, up from $11.2 trillion in 2019.

Home prices have risen to the point that bargains are hard to come by. In mid-2021, there was very little inventory of homes for sale in most U.S. many non-U.S. markets, leading to bidding wars among buyers.

Construction of all types, including commercial, has enjoyed a strong market in recent years. About $1.42 trillion in new American construction was expected to be put into place for 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Home builders in the U.S. were enjoying robust sales and profits until the beginning of the Coronavirus in mid-2021. Many have been challenged in finding enough new lots for future building. In many markets, they are also challenged in creating new homes at price points that are attractive to first-time buyers, as lot prices are high, and cities are often charging significant infrastructure fees for each new lot. In fact, housing affordability in general is a significant problem in many major markets worldwide.

Retail centers in the U.S. are seriously overbuilt, and there are too many stores trying to sell to too few shoppers. The result of this glut has been large numbers of retail store chain bankruptcies—a trend that has accelerated dramatically due to the Coronavirus pandemic of 2020. Many remaining chains have either curtailed expansion plans or are opening much smaller stores than in the past. Meanwhile, retail stores are facing dramatic competition from sales made over the internet. Online commerce is growing at stellar rates while mall traffic and store revenues are generally disappointing. Mall owners in many areas are accepting large non-retail tenants in an effort to fill up former department store sites.

Apartment house operators have been enjoying brisk business in general. For the fourth quarter of 2020, the vacancy rate at U.S. apartments was 6.3%, compared to 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2019. These low vacancy rates have been encouraging the construction of new apartment buildings at a rapid rate.

Over the long term, on a global basis, there will be continuing demand from the health care sector for new or remodeled properties, as the percentage of the population over age 65 continues to grow in many nations from North America to Asia to Europe, boosting the need for medical care and assisted living centers.

Another growing trend in construction is the use of energy conservation technologies in new buildings. This is true in both residential and commercial construction. Several “green” building certification plans are now in place, so that architects and builders may seek to attain certain energy conservation and eco-friendly standards. Other advancing technologies include “smart home” features that control lightning, air conditioning and security via smartphone apps, as well as a small but growing use of robotics and 3D printing in home construction.