Analysts at BP report that non-hydroelectric
renewable power consumption grew by a respectable 17.0% worldwide during 2017 (the
latest year for which data is available).
North American consumption increased by a substantial 13.5%.
World hydroelectric consumption increased by 0.9%
during 2017.
North American
hydroelectric consumption decreased by 6.7%.
Steady growth does not mean that renewables
account for a large amount of the world's energy.
Instead, non-hydroelectric renewables as a
percent of global electricity generation accounted for about an 8.4% share in 2017,
up from 7.4% in 2016.
Coal and natural
gas (and to a lesser extent, nuclear energy) remain the primary sources of non-renewable
electric generation in most of the world.
U.S.
electric production from renewable sources
was 17.1% of total electric power in 2017, up from only about 7.6% in
1970.
In this case, “renewable” includes
conventional hydroelectric and geothermal, along with solar, wind and
biomass.
(In 1970, such production was
almost entirely from hydroelectric sources.)
Wind power has seen rapid growth
worldwide.
Major technological advances
in wind turbines (including much larger blades creating very high output per
turbine and blades that suffer very little downtime and are thus more
efficient), along with massive government incentives encouraging investment in
wind generation, have fueled turbine installation.
Analysts at BP estimated total wind generation
capacity worldwide at 514,798 megawatts in 2017.
The Global Wind Energy Council
forecast it to climb
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Analysts at BP report that non-hydroelectric
renewable power consumption grew by a respectable 17.0% worldwide during 2017 (the
latest year for which data is available).
North American consumption increased by a substantial 13.5%.
World hydroelectric consumption increased by 0.9%
during 2017. North American
hydroelectric consumption decreased by 6.7%.
Steady growth does not mean that renewables
account for a large amount of the world’s energy. Instead, non-hydroelectric renewables as a
percent of global electricity generation accounted for about an 8.4% share in 2017,
up from 7.4% in 2016. Coal and natural
gas (and to a lesser extent, nuclear energy) remain the primary sources of non-renewable
electric generation in most of the world.
U.S. electric production from renewable sources
was 17.1% of total electric power in 2017, up from only about 7.6% in
1970. In this case, “renewable” includes
conventional hydroelectric and geothermal, along with solar, wind and
biomass. (In 1970, such production was
almost entirely from hydroelectric sources.)
Wind power has seen rapid growth
worldwide. Major technological advances
in wind turbines (including much larger blades creating very high output per
turbine and blades that suffer very little downtime and are thus more
efficient), along with massive government incentives encouraging investment in
wind generation, have fueled turbine installation. Analysts at BP estimated total wind generation
capacity worldwide at 514,798 megawatts in 2017. The Global Wind Energy Council
forecast it to climb to 840,000 megawatts in 2022. In 2018, U.S. wind capacity was 90,550 megawatts.
Solar power is enjoying significant
technological innovation. The important
factors in solar are the percent of captured solar energy that is converted
into electricity (which is climbing), and the cost per installed watt of
potential output (which is declining).
The use of polymers has led to exciting, flexible solar panels, while
nanotechnology is creating breakthroughs in solar technology as well.
Analysts at BP report that installed global
solar photovoltaic capacity was only 4,245 megawatts at the end of 2005. By 2011, that number had soared to 71,251
megawatts, and in 2017 it surged ahead to 399,613 megawatts.
Biomass energy (including the use of energy
from waste, such as wood chips and landfills, and the production of bioethanol)
has also grown rapidly over the long term, both in the U.S. and elsewhere.
As for nuclear power, both expensive to build
and controversial as to its safety, the construction of new nuclear generating
plants is accelerating rapidly in China, where demand for electricity is
booming and dozens of new nuclear plants are planned. Several new plants are also planned or
underway in the UAE, India and South Korea.
However, a history of construction cost overruns and a vast regulatory
burden make it virtually impossible to construct a nuclear plant today in the
U.S. and EU. Nonetheless, nuclear
provides an emission-free alternative to solar and wind, and it is generally reliable
24 hours-a-day. Today’s advanced nuclear
plant technologies are vastly improved and are thought by many to be virtually
fail-safe.
It should be noted that the use of renewable sources
does not always mean clean power generation.
For example, burning wood or trash for energy under the wrong conditions
can create significant pollution. Also,
the clearing of land, such as forests, for planting of biomass to be used in
ethanol or biodiesel refining can be highly destructive to the environment
while creating huge quantities of carbon emissions. In addition, many types of renewable energy
production require vast quantities of water.
These trade-offs continue to create significant debate and controversy.
In the U.S., emphasis on alternative energy and
conservation has a varied history. The
1973 oil trade embargo staged by Persian Gulf oil producers greatly limited the
supply of petroleum in America and created an instant interest in energy
conservation. Thermostats were turned to
more efficient levels, solar water heating systems sprouted on the rooftops of
American homes (including a system that was used for a few years at the White
House) and tax credits were launched by various government agencies to
encourage investment in more efficient systems in buildings and factories that
would utilize less oil, gasoline and electricity. Meanwhile, American motorists crawled through
lengthy lines at filling stations, trying to top off their tanks during the
horrid days of gasoline rationing.
While some consumers maintained a keen, long
term interest in alternative energy from an environmentally friendly point of
view, most Americans quickly forgot about energy conservation when the price of
gasoline plummeted during the 1980s and 1990s, and again in 2014. Low gasoline prices were common for many
years. As advancing technology made oil
production and electricity generation much more efficient, a long-term, oil
price trend kept market prices under control.
(Although price spikes do occur from time-to-time.) As a result, Americans returned to ice-cold
air-conditioned rooms and purchased giant, gas-guzzling SUVs, motor homes and
motorboats. The median newly constructed
American single-family home built in 1972 contained 1,520 square feet; by 2017
it contained 2,457 square feet. More
square footage means more lights, air conditioning and heating systems to
power. Meanwhile, federal and state
regulators made efforts to force automobile engines and industrial plants to
operate in clean-air mode, largely through the use of advanced technologies,
while requiring gasoline refiners to adopt an ever-widening web of additives
and standards that would create cleaner-burning fuels.
Fortunately, the first energy crisis in the
early 1970s did lead to the widespread use of technology to create significant efficiencies
in many areas. For example, prior to
that time, as much as 40% of a typical household’s natural gas consumption was
for pilot lights burning idly in case a stove or furnace was needed. Today, electric pilots create spark ignition for
gas burners on demand. Likewise, today’s
refrigerators use about 70% less electricity than models built in 1970. Many other appliances and electrical devices
have become much more efficient, through better design and engineering, better
insulation, more efficient motors, efficient lightning and smarter building
controls. While the number of
electricity-burning personal computers proliferated, computer equipment makers
rapidly adopted energy-saving PC technologies.
Renewable energy sources, cleaner-burning fuels,
fuel-efficient automobiles, as well as homes and buildings that utilize
energy-efficient materials and controls are of great appeal to the large number
of consumers worldwide who have developed a true interest in sustainability or
in protecting the environment. For
example, surveys have shown that many consumers are willing to pay somewhat
more for electricity if they know it is coming from non-polluting, renewable
sources. Nonetheless, the vast, recent
drops in the market prices of oil and natural gas pose a significant challenge
to alternative and renewable energy sources on a purely economic basis.
Hybrid gasoline-electric automobiles made by
Toyota, Honda and others are selling reasonably well in the U.S. and
elsewhere. Fully-electric vehicles are slowly
growing in popularity while batteries are falling in cost. Virtually all major auto makers are shifting
more and more of their production to electric or hybrid vehicles over the
long-term. Ford has adopted aluminum as a primary metal
for its popular F150 pickup trucks, savings hundreds of pounds in weight per
truck and dramatically increasing fuel efficiency. Prototype editions of hydrogen fuel
cell-powered automobiles have been on the market in very limited quantities.
Meanwhile, many municipalities, such as the
city of Seattle, Washington, have invested in buses and other vehicles that are
hybrids or run on natural gas.
Legislation at state and national levels will
continue to boost renewable energy development and conservation technologies on
a global basis. In the U.S., governments
in more than one-half of the 50 states have passed stringent legislation
requiring that an ever-growing percentage of electric generation comes from
renewable means.
Technologies with a reliable return on investment,
such as hydroelectric, remain extremely desirable. Conservation through advanced materials and
technologies, such as retrofitting existing buildings with more efficient
windows, insulation and air conditioning, is growing, and a good return on
investment and increase in property values are typical results.
Bioethanol and biodiesel, from an economic and
environmental point of view, are questionable at the least, and extremely
misdirected at the worst. Some
production of bioethanol appears very efficient, particularly in Brazil where easily-grown
sugar cane is the feedstock. However, in
the U.S., the diversion of corn and soy from the food chain to the energy chain
for ethanol or biodiesel may be a very bad idea from a wide variety of
measures.
Advanced technologies that capture carbon
dioxide and utilize it to grow oil-producing algae appear to be a somewhat promising
alternative source for oil, but much research and development remains to be
done in this area, and costs remain high.
At least two geothermal energy projects, where
deep holes are drilled to tap the high temperatures of the inner Earth, have
recently been cancelled due to concerns that these activities cause
earthquakes. Tidal energy looks
promising, but both installation costs and maintenance remain huge obstacles. Nonetheless, technologies are advancing
rapidly in this field, and many projects are underway or in place.
The bottom line is that many types of renewable
energy production simply cannot exist without substantial government
investments, incentives, loans and/or tax breaks. Hydroelectric is a rare exception, as it
produces power at very low cost. In
nearly all other cases, the largest projects (utility-scale) based on solar,
wind or wave power can only be funded through high levels of government
support. Consumers of such power will
pay much higher rates for electricity, either directly through their power
bills or indirectly through their taxes.
It remains to be seen whether technologies in these fields can advance
to the point that such renewable power sources can become economically viable
on a self-sustaining basis.
Smaller-scale, rooftop solar power
installations have become extremely popular in sunny climates in the U.S. and
elsewhere. The cost of solar cells has
plummeted to the point that solar power produced at homes and commercial
buildings is becoming economically viable after government incentives are
factored in. While the solar cells
themselves are now relatively cheap, installation remains costly. Meanwhile, solar cells require regular
maintenance, and their efficiency degrades steadily as they age in place.
Utility-scale solar is a different story. The exceptionally high investment required,
along with a lack of further federal loan guarantees, means that new projects
for extremely large, utility-scale, solar installations are unlikely to
launched in the U.S. Many of the largest
projects involving concentrated solar power have been financial
disappointments.
In late 2015, the City of San Diego, California
made the startling announcement that it hopes to transition to using 100%
renewable energy by 2035, while cutting its greenhouse gas emissions in
half. The city also plans to shift
one-half of its fleet of vehicles to electric power and to recycle 98% of the
methane gas produced by its sewage and water treatment facilities.
The renewable energy sector will continue to
evolve rapidly, as new technologies offer breakthroughs and greater
efficiencies are reached. The biggest
gains will occur when powerful new batteries are finally developed that make it
cost-effective to store solar and wind power where they are produced, for
release as needed even when wind or sunlight are not available.