Plunkett Research^®, Ltd.

Plunkett Research identifies 10 of the most influential trends occurring in the wireless, Wi-Fi, RFID and cellular industries. These trends will not only shape how we communicate today, but they will also dictate how we communicate in the future. This and more is reported in Plunkett’s Wireless, Wi-Fi, RFID & Cellular Industry Almanac, 2010 edition.

"The wireless world incorporates a great deal more than cell phones, ranging from satellite-based services and Wi-Fi hotspots to remote wireless sensor networks (WSNs) and vast wireless networks on corporate and college campuses," says Jack Plunkett, CEO and Editor of Plunkett Research. "Mobile communications, including mobile entertainment, continues to remain one of the hottest sectors in the InfoTech market. There were an estimated 3.3 billion global cellular telephone subscribers by the beginning of 2009, including more than 270 million in the U.S. alone."

Plunkett’s 10 Major Trends Happening in the Wireless, Wi-Fi, FRID and Cellular Industry:

1) 3G Cellular Systems Are Deployed While Ultra Fast 4G is Coming Soon - 3G is the accepted norm throughout the world’s most developed nations, as sophisticated cell phone users demand good Internet connections. These are the cell phone users who pay the highest monthly subscription prices and often purchase Smartphone’s. As of the first quarter of 2009, it was estimated there were 472 million 3G subscribers worldwide, which was about 14.3% of the cellular phone market. As for the future, Fourth-generation services (4G) are already being standardized and boosted by 3GPP, a global industry group. The International Telecommunication Union defines 4G as the transmission of data at speeds of 1Gbps between stationary transmitters and receivers, and 100 Mbps when mobile. On the other hand, service providers are likely to feel justified in claiming very high-speed, new-generation platforms to be “4G,” such as WiMAX at 15 to 40 Mbps.

2) LTE and HSDPA Offer High-Speed Platforms, May Compete with WiMAX - Long Term Evolution (LTE) is an advanced wireless technology expected to deliver wireless Internet access speeds equal to fast DSL speeds. The technology may be useful not only for cell phones, but also for connecting items like digital cameras to the Internet. Practical LTE data transfer speeds might eventually reach 100 to even 1,000 Mbps. This means that LTE, like WiMAX, has the potential to be a serious competitor to landline Internet access services like DSL and cable. As WiMAX becomes widely used and there is more of an experience base to learn from, WiMAX may prove to be more effective for fixed users, such as home or office computers, than for mobile users such as netbooks used in a train or car. This could eventually cause LTE to be the platform of choice for mobile devices.

3) Wi-Fi Accelerates - Wi-Fi offers a wireless connection at speeds of up to 54 megabits per second (Mbps), nearly 1,000 times the speed of dial-up and much faster than cellular phones. On the fixed end, each network is tied into an Internet connection that can be very high-speed. Wi-Fi enabled devices, like notebook computers or PDAs, provide mobile access to the Internet and therefore to information, entertainment and e-mail, and VOIP telephony. Wi-Fi networks are easy and inexpensive to set up. The signal utilizes public domain, unlicensed radio spectrum. Operators typically build them in high-traffic areas, such as coffee shops, fast food restaurants, airports, hotels, bookstores, shopping malls and other public places.

4) MIMO (802.11n) Enhances WiMAX, the High-Speed Wireless Wave - Wi-Fi has been a popular method of setting up wireless computer networks, not only in the home, but also in office and institutional environments. However, Wi-Fi standards to date may not offer the data transfer speeds required by network managers. The major leap in wireless technology is 802.11n (Multiple Input Multiple Output antenna technology—also known as “MIMO”). It has the potential to provide theoretical data transfer speeds as high as 500 Mbps (although hardware manufacturers say that practical speeds will likely average around 150 Mbps). This high speed means that MIMO could compete with traditional LANs, offering a true wireless alternative to wired local area networks in the office environment. 802.11n also boasts better operating distances than the current Wi-Fi networks.

5) Femtocells Utilize the Internet to Make a Leap in Wireless Service Levels - A femtocell is essentially a local wireless access point. This technology enables wireless service providers to provide much higher-quality voice and data transmission by using the Internet to pass calls to and from wireless devices. Femtocell devices are inexpensive, and they can be installed in users’ homes and offices to enhance local wireless networks. Wireless service operators that provide femtocell enhancements to their offerings may earn greater customer loyalty and reduce churn. Other advantages to operators may include monthly service fees for the femtocell service, and reduced load on the wireless segment of the operator’s network.

6) Ultrawideband (UWB) Offers Sizzling Short-Range Speed - Ultrawideband (UWB) is a means of low-power, short-range wireless data transmission with extremely high-speed potential. UWB encodes signals in a dramatically different way, sending digital pulses in a relatively secure manner that will not interfere with other wireless systems that may be operating nearby. It has the potential to deliver very large amounts of data to a distance of about 230 feet, even through doors and other obstacles, and requires very little power. There is much promise for the eventual use of UWB. It offers vastly faster speeds than Bluetooth 1.0 and Bluetooth 2.0, a wireless connection method that is already in wide use. However, the upcoming Bluetooth 3.0 is so fast that it will be serious competition to UWB. Nonetheless, UWB is so fast that it could become a favorite within the home or office for wireless transmission of such data as streaming video or stored TV programming. While UWB devices may seem pricey at first, rapidly increasing volume will lower prices over a short period of time.

7) Google, Verizon and Others Bring Open Systems to the Cellular Handset Market – The issue at hand is whether cellular service providers will continue to determine what features and applications their subscribers see on handset screens, or whether subscribers will be free to choose from a wide variety of applications to suit their own needs. For consumers to be free to choose, handset manufacturers must incorporate an open platform into handsets. Such a platform would be readily usable by the world’s major service carriers and would also be open to the world’s software developers, free of charge. This would enable developers to create a virtually unlimited variety of applications for the small screen, from games to business applications, personal calendars to social networks, educational tools to home automation applications. After immense effort, Google signed up more than 30 leading companies to form the Open Handset Alliance, which supports the open cell phone platform called Android. iPhone competitor myTouch 3G by T-Mobile runs on the Android operating system. Manufacturers committed to making Android-based phones include LG, HTC and Motorola.

8) RFID Drives Inventory Management Evolution - The biggest technology breakthrough in inventory management is RFID (radio frequency identification)—the placement of microchips in product containers, cartons and packaging, combined with the use of special sensors in warehouses or on store shelves that alert a central inventory management system as to shipment arrivals, product purchases and the need to restock inventory, communicating via wireless means. In retail stores, the chips may even eliminate the need to scan each item at checkout. Checkout stations will be equipped with receivers that automatically calculate purchases a cart full at a time, rather than each individual item. Another potential advantage of RFID is that manufacturers and distributors will be able to reduce overall inventory thanks to greater supply chain efficiency. RFID is already in wide use for such tasks as tagging livestock and for motorists using non-stop, pre-paid lanes on toll ways (often called EZPass). ExxonMobil is also on the bandwagon with the SpeedPass wireless payment system, based on Texas Instruments RFID technology.

9) Music Plays a Major Role in New Cell phones - The latest cell phones feature Bluetooth technology with Streaming Multimedia Support, enabling subscribers to use on-demand music or video. These units can synchronize with a user’s personal computer via a USB cable. Some of these cell phones support Windows Media Player playlists and also offer optional memory cards to expand its storage. Other units include short-range FM transmitters that enable users to transmit their music playlists to a nearby FM radio. Verizon and the Rhapsody music site offer V Cast Music, a music service offering more than 5 million songs as of mid-2009. The service costs $14.99 per month, and songs can be downloaded directly to Verizon cell phones and also to a PC (Sprint Nextel offers a similar service).

10) GPS and Location Based Services (LBS) Enhance Cell Phone Subscriptions - Adding GPS (global positioning satellite) features to wireless devices is a natural enhancement. For example, package delivery giant UPS has provided GPS-enabled handhelds to its more than 75,000 drivers to help them find destinations more quickly. Gartner Research estimated that global subscribers to cell phone service with GPS would rise from 16 million in 2007 to 43.2 million in 2008; and further skyrocket to 300 million in 2011. Revenue for these subscriptions was projected to jump from $485.1 million 2007 to $1.3 billion in 2008, and surpass $8 billion in 2011.

Additional information is available in "Plunkett's Wireless, Wi-Fi, RFID & Cellular Industry Almanac 2010," as well as on our web site, www.PlunkettResearch.com.

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